Oddbean new post about login | logout The deal was made with Israel warning that it would bomb any movement of weapons into Lebanon. Which is the case with these attacks. They are all cases of Hezbollah moving weapons.
Hopefully Hezbollah's patient refusal to fire back is a strong strategy to build up a big weapon stockpile for when the "ceasefire" is over 👍
Hezbollah has only one goal, which is to destroy Israel. It did not accept the ceasefire because it was being annihilated and needed time to reorganize.
Wow, really smart of them to not accept the ceasefire so you would think they were going to violate it when your side would actually end up being the only ones violating it
That and also it's the middle east. Things are complicated.
Yes. It is a complicated and hopeless region in my opinion. But there is a lot of misinformation that only makes the situation worse. Like this link that suggests that Israel is not complying with the ceasefire. Which is not true, and it is only following what was agreed upon.
I find ISW to provide very level headed info on several conflicts. They focus on open source intelligence. Of course they're US based so it doesn't hurt to consider additional sources. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-30-2024
Yes. ISW is a good source.