Nostr needs a capital incentive baked into a product that can deliver a 10x order of magnitude improvement that current technology cannot provide. Clones of existing apps don’t deliver a substantial UX improvement for the vast majority of users. The nostr product that will go viral with normies is a product that is fresh.

In my opinion decentralized prediction markets over nostr create that capital incentive that is an order of magnitude improvement on centralized prediction markets. The improvement is obvious: anyone can ask a question and provide liquidity to bet (with Bitcoin, not a shitcoin). In centralized implementations only the prediction market operator can ask questions and provide liquidity according to LMSR. Decentralizing that opens the flood gates to anyone asking any question they want and enabling people to trade on those outcomes.

The difficulty with prediction markets over nostr is implementing trust minimized contracts/share issuance and redemption in event outcomes. It’s a hard technical problem, which is why we don’t currently have an implementation, but it’s possible to do. 

 Polymarket but on nostr with corn would be amazing.