Oddbean

No one knows nor should pretend to know I don’t believe we will see diminishing returns yet because we’re not leveling off in adoption yet, but literally anything can happen that can suppress price and adoption, at least in the short term The only thing we can be certain of is that the dollar is doomed…if we start talking hyperinflation, all the models are broken

Yeah I get that nobody *knows*; I'm just trying to get an idea of what other people think, hopefully from a bit more level-headed perspective. I calculated (in fiat terms) the value of N stack by when I want to retire, based on historically low returns of 100%/year [N*(2^Y)]... Very doable, and staggering, to the point that I need somebody to proverbially splash some cold water on me.

I’ll simply say that a doubling every two years until about 2040 wouldn’t surprise me. I don’t think it will be stable like that though, with most of that growth on the front end. But that puts #Bitcoin at about $12million per coin in 2040 when the US debt will most likely be at $100-$150Trillion (barring any crazy monetary events before then, which is probable) Before we get to that point though there’s no telling how the landscape changes and how we think about “the price” to begin with.