Oddbean new post about login | logout I like MSTR long term, but at the moment the price is very high vs its net asset value. The company does a great job of raising capital to arbitrage that situation when it occurs, but outside investors need to be careful when those types of wider-than-normal gaps develop.
I LIKE THE CORN LONG TERM
YES #YESTR #CORNSTR🌽
#METOO
Thanks for your clarification.. I arrived at the same conclusion but didn't understand why people are apeing into the stock each day.
I was about to divest from my MSTR when the US ETFs came online at about $450 per share, but I listened to a @preston podcast and held. Today they’re at $1631.
Because many capital stuck in tradfi cannot easily 2x or 3x long btc. #MSTR is the only legit way doing so. #Microstrategy will continue going up till BTC reaches the peak in this cycle.
Thanks for your wise caution. Here’s what I do: Starting position was 50% FBTC, 50% MSTR, all in tax-advantaged accounts. When MSTR pumps 1-5% ahead of more, I'm quickly rebalancing into FBTC back to 50/50. I never sell the FBTC. If MSTR reverts to mean, I'll HODL and wait until it becomes my race horse again in the future. And by future, I mean decades.
@LynAlden - is there a scenario wherein bitcoin ETFs experience a run? Retail investors/traders cash out gains en masse? And ultimately cause a bitcoin bear? Thanks.
Do what Saylor does and sell MSTR for bitcoin today! nostr:nevent1qqsdn00a6h3y96lvwjmfehc7klgt4423378d43mu7r40u5e9pul3kwcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncrqsqqqqqp7ur6hg
LYN IS STAYING HUMBLE
What do you think about these guys thesis? They argue that MSTR isn't really a BTC derivative, thus it'll be valued different than by NAV. And if it gets added to S&P MSTR will get buying pressure which is indefferent about its NAV. It's high risk for sure, but I think there's a compelling case why it could go much higher due to these financial dynamics and not being an ETF but a running business with cash flow. 2021 top was 6x to NAV, so it has happened before already. But yeah, MSTR is just few percentage speculation for me. Only thing I'm speculating atm – everything else in BTC – because in my estimation there's a good risk/reward ratio to outperform BTC – especially in a bullmarket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I16llak_IS4
I’d hate to know how many notes I’ve seen from bitcoiners about investing in it. My thought has been if you can get it through your company match do so up to the match amount or no more than 10% of total bitcoin holdings. Any thoughts like this for the plebs ?
Yes, but in a bull-runs isn’t that always going to be the case? Like, the stock isn’t attractive to speculators as a bitcoin value play, it’s attractive as a leveraged play.
