Oddbean new post about login | logout Concerned this is still underestimating their resolve. If Russia or China tries to oppose USD hemegony in any meaningful way, there will be a kinetic war and it will not be good.
Russia announced using cryptocurrency for international payments, and has been doing well despite the sanctions, and the majority of Chinese exports are now paid in RMB. There probably will probably be a (hotter) war but that should decentralize things further. The US has a sovereign debt crisis brewing. I’m not saying there won’t be challenges and attacks. I’m just saying that I’m watching things moving towards decentralization and I’m encouraged by it.
They are at the same time cracking down on their own citizens using crypto no?
Maybe? I don’t really know what’s happening on the ground. My friends in China say that anyone who wants to buy bitcoin there can. They’ve recently approved the ETF in Hong Kong. I hear that folks are still mining within China. It sounds like Russia is discouraging it for average citizens but we’ve recently seen some legislative progress there too. Not sure if there any actual crackdowns. Things seem to be making positive progress.
What is great is hashrate distributed between enemies.
Absolutely! 💯
It's worthwhile to note that Russia announced its *central bank is allowing "approved entities" to conduct (no doubt heavily surveiled) transactions. Not really a great example of decentralization. https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/russian-bitcoin-mining-payments-law/
Some positive progress. Yes, not yet embracing the decentralized aspect for average folks but it seems that they recognize the decentralization benefits, at least for themselves as a country against the US and Europe. The benefits for Russia are significant. As they move to a bitcoin standard for international trade, I suspect it will percolate throughout their society. Maybe they look like El Salvador eventually. Bitcoin changes people.
I appreciate the positivity but there's not really any evidence they're moving to a bitcoin standard even for trade. And certainly none that its going to percolate through their society.
Zoom out to appreciate how far we’ve come. Civilizational change takes time. They just approved bitcoin for international trade last week? What do you anticipate will happen when they realize, like we do… …it’s freedom from seizure and censorship? …that they can receive digital verified payment for billions in minutes? …that they no longer have to invest in foreign fiat bonds? …that it’s making their country wealthier and more prosperous? I suspect they’ll start using it more often.