Oddbean new post about login | logout Can someone name an investment that isn't speculative? Like what do people even mean when they say "Bitcoin is speculative?" If a company earns income and you buy their stock, are you not speculating that this income will continue?
No you're not because you're looking at fundamentals. There's not speculation in investment. There's speculation in trading. DCF and other models are speculative analysis but you eliminate speculation with quantifiable data.
Does Bitcoin not have fundamentals?
We live in the era where base money itself is speculative. So fuck those investment guys.
That's a follow.
Even FIAT is speculative. One FIAT vs the others. FIAT vs commodities. Fiat vs stocks… they chose to keep their saving in the asset class that promises the higher return. Sometimes, that asset is their shitcoin
Indeed, all investment returns require risk. Folks just seem to have an imaginary line on the risk curve at which they consider the risk to be too high, and they call that "speculation."
This people aren’t thinking clearly… LIFE ITSELF is speculative. When you go out to work, you leave your house to get some money. You could be killed. In your speculation, you put in balance the chance of being killed and the money you WILL NEED SO YOU WONT STARVE. If you don’t go out, you starve and die, if you leave your house, you may or may not be killed. This is true in every turn of life. We all speculate.
Yourself.
Even life is speculative.