Oddbean

It has come to my attention that there are some #Bitcoiners that don’t think #Bitcoin can reach $1,000,000 in a matter of days/weeks after ETF money starts to flow in. They’re in for a pleasant surprise.

This is the interesting part on what is going to happen Samson. We just don't know. It was never done this way before. I somehow see their trial to lower the moneyflow by anouncind eth etf's But honestly don't know if this will stop the flow. The other side is the hodlers and what happens to them if their dreamhouse comes in reach. Will they hold the line? We don't know.

We just don't know Sandy. That's my point. So lets hold our hands Sit down on a bench And watch the fireworks It might also be that the old white man in the investment industry are too conservative for Bitcoin investment. This is something Blackrock will for sure know.

This could happen at 3AM Bangkok time any given night. Stack harder, #siamstr brothers and sisters. We're living in an insane timeline. Shit could hit the fan any minute.⚡ nostr:nevent1qqsd4f2kmxgcu4fwnrhqjg9pjjmc3ysywkyjgwrn0chg6rtf6zuswkspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdupzpjd3nl7dg0n2tu3m85n3qm8pne9d9hufhggrrh2xzlcmty0ppzt9qvzqqqqqqymj64fk

It’s irrelevant if the battle to be free isn’t won. P2P is where it’s at and they’re fighting to stop that. There’s the real battle. Dollar price means nothing if there’s no on / off ramp. Sats held / earned and circular economy is where we’re heading for freedom 🔥

They will acquire a significant portion then fractionally reserve it. They are the same beast as FTX, just more organised. They won't go bust in one cycle, they will manage draw downs through regulation and influencing monetary policy. When they do get exposed they will ensure that so manny people would get rekt, that the government will intervene like they did with gold. An ETF is the final fiat boss for Bitcoin to defeat to destroy the central bank.

I'm just thinking about how to cook crows now.... 🤣 I also don't expect it to happen, not this soon anyways. But that's the thing about gradually then suddenly. We can't know or expect what will happen, we can only try to be prepared.

It’s come to my attention that some Bitcoiners don’t think Bitcoin can crash after an ETF announcement. They are in for a shock. Be like the bankers. Position yourself to be ready for both sides.

What happens to the price of bitcoin in the short term after the launching of the ETF no one can predict (100k or more, anything can happen). HOWEVER WHAT WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN is the following, because bitcoin financialization means: 1. Diluted demand for the real bitcoin, the non-custodial, bearer, decentralized, censorship resistant asset. Money will rather flow into the black hole of fiat financial custodians. Anyone FTX & Co.? 2. Discourages self-custody and financial responsibility. You are not your own bank. You are not financially independent. In the long term this means they will be able to control the price like they did with gold. Paper gold claims are estimated at 1000times more than physical ounces. See how this has successfully capped the gold price. 3. Discourages learning about Bitcoin and becoming financially literate. 4. It is very risky. You will buy nothing else than counterparty risk. You will own nothing but a claim on a claim. Blackrock holds its bitcoin in a non-custodial wallet held by Coinbase. Therefore you have 2 counterparty risks and NO bitcoins: shares of the Blackrock ETF and IOU on the Coinbase account. 5. Censorship resistance is gone and the intermediaries can easily enforce third party claims or government/judicial dictats on your "paper" bitcoin claim via the intermediaries. 6. It encourages speculation, manipulation and discourages true adoption (i.e bitcoin real time monetization). You can advocate for the long term benefit of financialization only if you are (i) stupid or (ii) a speculator who wants to cash in on the price spike and forget about Bitcoin or (iii) if you are extremely naive and do not understand what are the powers and massive forces at play against Bitcoin and their need to control it because they cannot suppress it or own it. Which I explain very clearly in the articles below which one should read before believing in "Santa Blackrock". PART I https://andreleblanc.substack.com/p/will-bitcoin-win-and-foster-a-new PART II https://andreleblanc.substack.com/p/will-bitcoin-win-and-foster-a-new-a13

Yes, 20-25x from here is possible, based on previous precedent. That's assuming steady state, but remember the dollar's status as global reserve is also under threat, so some of that surge might be dollar collapse this year. At the same time, don't put faith in any single event to move bitcoin's price... it's resillient in both directions, global disasters on the downside and major inflows on the upside. It may go 10x then correct, then go sideways, then drop sickeningly, before pulling out of the tailspin and ascending once more. Who knows? It gets interesting when the dollar disappears and we can only compare real world assets, commodities, and services to satoshis. Until then, it's clown show noise.