Oddbean new post about | logout
 when i say "beat Russia" i don't mean "take moscow" or even "kick them out of donbass" but simply end the war on such terms that Ukrainians can return to pre-war level quality of life.

personally, even as somebody born in Ukraine, i don't think Ukraine needs territories in the East that are 90% ethnically Russian.  those are liabilities, not assets, even if they have natural resources.

if i was leading Ukraine i would work out an agreement where Russia keeps ethnically Russian territories in exchange for rebuilding everything they destroyed and providing financial support for children they have orphaned until they turn 18.

the remaining part of Ukraine would have to join NATO and EU as part of same agreement.

i actually don't think either Ukrainians or Putin would accept those terms but this is what needs to happen.

even when i lived in Kiev it was always understood that east and west are different countries.  as a Russian speaker i knew never to travel to the west of Ukraine or i would be beaten senseless for being a foreigner. 
 west of Ukraine is basically Poland.  east of Ukraine is basically Russia.  the map needs to get rebalanced in according with reality on the ground.