Oddbean new post about login | logout How long do you think it’s going to take to fully monetize bitcoin? Personally, I don’t think it’ll be done in our lifetime. This should make everyone’s time preference very long and irrelevant to think about.
It will never happen by the time you think it will someone will make a new currency protocol & say bitcoins the past now were on quantumcash the future. (20xx)
Bitcoin will only approach full monetisation. when the vast majority of pensioners are willing to hold their significant savings in it. Probably gen-Z's pensioners at the earliest. Conceivably millennial pensioners, but I think it's unlikely.
In which country do people still have pensions? In Japan it’s not a good deal. I don’t think pensions have much to do with bitcoin monetizing.
sorry, I should have been more precise: By "pensioners" I meant "older people look to preserve their wealth in the later part of their life so they dont run out of money before they die". That's a pretty huge pot of value that's currently monetising other assets. I don't think today's old people will save the large part of their wealth in bitcoin, they'll chose other assets. BTC feels too volatile, unknown and unsafe to them. As bitcoin will be a larger and larger part of successive generations' financial life, you'd expect bitcoin saving amongst old people to trend upwards over time though. It may be that the first gen to save in BTC as old people will have to be "bitcoin native" generation (i.e. born into a world where bitcoin is normal).
I think this makes a lot of sense. I also think there needs to be a global technical standard for inheriting bitcoin. A lot of bitcoin will be lost before there is such a standard.
Norway: It has realised a long time ago, that to have a sustainable pension system they need to invest generating ealth. That's why they have a sovereign fund, that buys shares/companies, and it is their wealth generation that funds their pension system. To be clear, generating wealth is not generating cash. it is a principle of transformation, generating/transforming things that are essential for your life. From a tree, to pulp, to a fiber that you wear every day, or paper, or packaging. From water, sun, wind, to energy, to power your home, to bitcoin. Form coper, to wire, to energy trasmission. These are sustainable wealth generating cycles and they are essential to you. And when you switch from fiat to bitcoin, those companies will be there and remaining a vital part of your life. you will just use bitcoin for their products / services. and the cycles will go on. However in a better structured cycle, with an underlying solid financial system. Who lives without paper, or energy, or sanitation? That's why all communist states fail. They take the wealth but they cannot generate it.
Agreed but isolated case in certain circular economies it’s here now. As they say; The future is here now it’s just not evenly distributed.
We should expect increase in fiat money production and going to war to accelerate the process of monetizing bitcoin. So, it shouldn't be ruled out that it can possibly happen in our lifetime.