Oddbean new post about login | logout If Bitcoin can manage to stay steady or climbing slowly, it'll beat inflation on the medium timeline. That makes it the best-performing asset class. You have to remember that we're in disinflation and heading into deflation.
Lol I was thinking how many hours 🤣
Wow. Oh, okay. 😂 I guess I assumed that the ETF funds all bought slowly in advance, and that's the reason we've been having the slow, steady incline since last summer. Everyone else is broke or they're just going to buy the ETF. But that might just be wishful thinking because I'm still stacking.
Oh, damn! 😅 Whoopsy!
Agree with the first part. Not entirely convinced that the superficial inflation rates will have as large—or any—impact on the value increase of Bitcoin. I mean, that's what the halvings are meant to suppress in the first place.
I don't mean consumer price deflation, I mean monetary deflation. Money being destroyed, as companies and people go bankrupt and debt gets written off. Then the Fed will perhaps respond with a rate cut, and then monetary inflation can kick off again and some of that newly-issued credit can go into Bitcoin. As far as I know, Bitcoin (like all hard assets) has a price reflecting monetary inflation.
You're probably right for the most part, but honestly, this isn't something that is worth speculating, in my opinion. The halvings have always played a monumental role in Bitcoin's price increases, and everyone has always gotten it wrong for the past 15 years. Also, there are far too many other factors to consider. 🤷♂️🙄
Bitcoin used to be a much smaller market. It's now a major global asset class. But, we'll see.
Indeed, we will.
The halving is just the method used to steadily decrease emission and you can see it coming from a mile away. Investors usually trade in advance of an occasion. The ETF and the halving aren't like war breaking out, suddenly. They're not surprises.
I wasn't trying to suggest that it is like a war breaking out. I've been aware of all this. What's your point?
That the ETF and the halving could be predicted and are already priced in. There were just some algos playing the launch, but the SEC "accidentally" wiped them out with the pre-launch fake-out.
Yea, that was hilarious. 🙄🤣 Honestly, I haven't looked too much into the ETFs. Which exchanges are backing them? Coinbase?
Question: if you had to guess, how long do you think they'll resume with the rate cuts?
There was a lot of fuckery in last two days. Very successful. Baiting traders with etirium worked also. I dont think all that will be enough to stop Bitcoin from exploding when etf starts trading today.