I went to look at the biggest bet on trump 
https://image.nostr.build/9b87dad28739ab152d6fec6eb56f7f50a6a6eece9cad9daa927684de883c6efc.jpg

His position is in profit, and even him moves the needle only a point. The market already has $1.5bi 

IMO prediction market are today the most relevant way to look at it