Oddbean

# Then They Fight You ## The ETFs might be coming, but is this something that is going to help Bitcon, or hurt it in the long run? All great revolutions encounter resistance as social change moves its way through the people. This can happen gradually then suddenly, but resistance will be there. People do not easily change their world views. We (Americans) are about to experience the next chapter in the great monetary war, by way of a Bitcoin ETF approval. This approval will change the course of Bitcoin adoption for better or worse, and is a good reason to be warned of what is to come. The Bitcoin ETF approval will send a huge message to money managers around the world, that is that “We, the US Government, deem bitcoin a safe asset for you to invest in”. Now If you're like me, you could care less what the SEC says or does, this is freedom money. But for millions of people across America, this is a big green flag that it is safe to have BTC exposure. If you have spent any time on Twitter or have followed financial markets news then you are probably sick and tired of hearing about Bitcoin ETF application form updates, pushed deadlines, insider whispers, and all the nonsense that goes along with this big moment. For good reason this is getting a massive amount of coverage, and for that reason alone you should take a pause to contemplate what is about to happen. The tin foil hat in me is buzzing. Whenever media coverage is in lockstep, this usually means something is being coordinated. "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."- Mahatma Gandhi So what exactly is being coordinated you ask? Good question, I don’t have the answers, only speculation. I expect the ETF approval to send shockwaves through markets in one way or another resulting in both intended and unintended consequences. The part that worries me is that we are well in the crosshairs of the US Government as a threat to the regime. In the words of Gandhi, we are firmly in the “then they fight you” stage of the revolution, the only thing about this fight is that the US Government is likely fighting unconventionally. There is 100% guarantee that they are executing psychological operations on social media and trained talking heads have been running their lines for months. Both of these activities will increase which will set the stage for US Government intervention and a possible confiscation scenario. There are so many things happening right now with the ETF, the halving, the election, the state of the overall macro economy, the war in the East… so how will this play out? VAGUE TIMELINE * ETF Approved * NY Banking Cartel start heavy accumulation * Waves of new experts enter the scene, spewing fud, they are here to "fix' bitcoin. * US Government raises more flags about the threat of Bitcoin to US sovereignty * NY Banking Cartel accumulation increases as interest soars (Streisand Effect) * US Government issues 6102 Bitcoin * US Government launches peg of a CBDC aka Stablecoin variant pegged to newly confiscated BTC * Criminalization of ethical Bitcoin (KYC-free) * Fork war of statecoin and Bitcoin * US Government learns the hard way about how Bitcoin the network defends itself This could all be a delusional fantasy from a conspiracy guy, but it’s worth thinking through to at least consider what we are up against. In the best case scenario, the US Government does nothing to intervene with the markets and Bitcoin will take us to the stars. In another plausible scenario, we could see Mark Goodwin’s Bitcoin dollar thesis come into reality as the US Government discovers that bitcoin is the most pristine asset and instrument to back the infinite US Treasury market. Based on the track record of the US Government, I expect them to intervene in a very negative way, and a lot sooner than anyone could imagine because bitcoin’s value will shoot up like a rocket. “Gradually then suddenly will” make a lot more sense as we enter the “suddenly” stage of the fight. Despite my doomer outlook on what I expect from the US Government, I am very optimistic on the individual. I have seen more building in the Bitcoin space over the past halving epoch than I could imagine. This war will not be easy and I know for certain that we will enter the “then you win” stage soon enough.