Oddbean new post about | logout
 Imo if the course of events continues the same way as for the past 3 years , I’m sure they will eventually de-legalise private (with undisclosed owners) wallets. I won’t be surprised if they would want everyone who  keeps their assets off the CEXs to report wallets and will keep registers of those with the owners all doxed obv. I wouldn’t be surprised if these eventually will lead to the p2p black market that already exists to expand even more , payments for services/products will also be restricted only for „registered” wallets. Same as it was with FX  market in Soviet Union. It was almost in 100% illegal to own foreign currency (with few exceptions) and you were able to either spent it in the gov owned stores or exchange in the gov owned banks as per their rates but first you were required to explain how you got it in the first place. Black p2p market was thriving even though engagement in this type of activity was a serious criminal offence. Sorry for dark visions but nothing indicates that we will suddenly go in the liberalisation direction, at least in the majority of countries (with few exceptions). It’s just happening so slowly that we don’t feel how we are being slowly boiled to death as proverbial frogs. And btw what is the point in even developing CBDCs from gov point of view if there is still a parallel market that is not fully controlled by them?