Oddbean

These are my very preliminary WR rankings, my only research being the RotoWire depth charts and player notes. **Tier 1** **CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, AJ Brown** I thought about putting Lamb in his own tier since he’s in his prime and the dominant No. 1 on a pass-heavy team, but Hill is arguably a top-five all-time receiver, Chase projects just as highly over a full season if his QB is healthy, St. Brown is a target and receptions machine and Brown is a physical freak who is finally receiving the targets he deserves. **Tier 2** **Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs** Jefferson might be the best receiver in the game, but the quarterback downgrade lands him in the top of Tier 2. Nacua also could have been in Tier 1, given his rookie year, but the presence of a healthy Cooper Kupp might cut into his role slightly (apparently Kupp was never fully healthy last year.) Wilson managed to produce with abominable QB play last year, but the threat of Aaron Rodgers being toast or Davante Adams getting brought in keep him out of Tier 1. Diggs is getting older, but landed in an ideal situation. **Tier 3** **Drake London, Marvin Harrison, DJ Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp** London gets a massive QB upgrade, Harrison is the clear No. 1 out of the gate, Moore gets an upgrade even with a rookie QB, though there’s a lot of competition for targets. Waddle, Olave and Smith are here based on their solid past production and skills, Adams is a wild card, depending on where he winds up and Kupp is an age and injury risk with Tier 1 upside if he somehow emerges as Matthew Stafford’s No. 1 again. **Tier 4** **Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk** These are all either quality second fiddles or top dogs with limited ceilings. I never draft Allen, and he always produces, but he’s 32, playing with a rookie QB and in a crowded receiving corps. Kirk has a nice floor as Trevor Lawrence’s likely top target again. I had Pittman at the bottom of this tier originally, but moved him up because he’s a clear No. 1, and what if Anthony Richardson is good? I used to like Metcalf more, but he’s just an okay NFL player despite other-wordly athleticism. **Tier 5** **Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey, Christan Watson, George Pickens, Jayden Reed, Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley ** This is an odd tier of has-beens, maybes, rookies and guys getting a shot. McLaurin probably has the highest floor, but is a boring pick. Reed has a good chance to emerge ahead of Watson and Romeo Doubs as Jordan Love’s go-to in Year 2, but Watson has the size and speed. I won’t stump for my Giant Nabers this year — though I traded Marvin Harrison for him and an extra pick in a dynasty league! — but I love that he’s only 20 and produced at such a high level in college. McConkey has a chance to be Justin Herbert’s top target right away, Flowers should be the co-No. 1 with Mark Andrews in Baltimore and Pickens is the No. 1 in Pittsburgh, though I don’t trust him or that passing offense at all. Marquise Brown has massive upside in Kansas City, but some competition with Xavier Worthy (who does the same thing) and Rashee Rice if he doesn’t got to jail. Ridley and Hopkins will see targets at least. **Tier 6** **Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Courtland Sutton, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Jordan Addison, Chris Godwin, Tank Dell, Jameson Williams, Gabe Davis, Rome Odunze, Jerry Jeudy, Adam Thielen, Romeo Doubs, Brian Thomas** Smith-Njigba could emerge at Seattle’s No. 1 with Lockett aging and Metcalf plateauing. Shaheed should get more targets with Michael Thomas gone, Sutton is the No. 1 in a bad offense, Johnson should catch a lot of passes, Rice could be Tier 2 or 3 once he gets finished with a likely suspension, Addison has his own legal problems from driving drunk, plus a QB downgrade, Godwin is a boring second fiddle now, Dell drops due to Diggs’ arrival, Williams is third fiddle in a good offense, Davis is probably just a guy, but should get targets, Odunze is in a crowded receiving corps, Jeudy is running out of time to break out, Thielen will get targets, Doubs is steady and reliable and Thomas has upside in a receiving corps without a star. **Tier 7** **Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman, Brandin Cooks, Xavier Worthy, Jakobi Meyers, Khalil Shakir, Tyler Lockett, Jahan Dotson, Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, Rashod Bateman, Michael Wilson, Quentin Johnston** These are mostly just guys who should get targets. Worthy and Coleman are more upside than floor, but the rest are just here because the ball is probably coming their way.