Oddbean

$250k being the top this time is laughable indeed. The top will be no less than 3x the average mining cost of one coin. But could be as much as 6x. The average mining cost grows regularly and accelerates it's growth during bull markets as higher energy prices become more affordable for mining. The current average mining cost is $84k. If RIGHT NOW was the peak of the bull run we'd be at $252k per coin MINIMUM. In 2017 we got to just under 6x the average mining cost at the peak. Without nation state/corporate adoption and no ETFs. In 2021 we reached just under 3x the mining cost right when China banned mining and reduced that average by over half mid bull run! March 19th 2021 saw an average mining cost of $20k with a price of $59k. An open market price nearly 3 times the cost to mine. The price dipped but the mining network continued to grow, hitting $32k with a price of $37k by May 21st. That SAME DAY china announced it's mining ban: https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/examining-the-latest-china-bitcoin-ban/ We were already in a dip, and it turned into a crash. By Aug 2nd 2021 the average mining cost had plummeted more than half to $15k, and wouldn't recover to above $32k until June 2023! This is like having Bitcoin mining banned in September of 2017 with the price at $3.6k after reaching $4.7k a few weeks prior. Would've never hit $19k if that happened, and we woould've hit almost $200k in 2021 if it hadn't. On the currency market we will hit between 3 - 6 times the average mining cost per coin at peak next year. I expect the average mining cost to double to $160k+ which would mean we hit $500k - $1,000K+ on the open market this bull run. BUT IT IS NOT SUSTAINABLE AT THAT PRICE. The mining network average cost is an anchor on the price. The price needs to stay close to it's marginal cost of production to be sustainable. It detaches from reality during the FOMO mania and when this is realized due to reduced new investment it crashes, to below the average mining cost within a year. You can increase your position and help the network stabilize and get closer to being a stable unit of account if you arbitrage this difference between the prices on the currency market and the energy market. Sell a little when it's 3x+ the average mining cost, sell a lot when it's 5x+. Buy back in a year later when it's <1x the average mining cost. Selling near the top helps to soften the bull peak, buying near the bottom helps to soften the bear bottom. Help Bitcoin become a more stable unit of account and you'll also help yourself grow your position. This is not day trading and gambling. This is arbitrage between the currency markets and the energy markets.