Oddbean new post about | logout
 Economically and politically, it feels like most of 2024 has been building toward the final quarter. The global rate-cutting cycle, set to soon begin in the US, and to be followed by a history-defining presidential election.

The consequences of either outcome remain uncertain. Frankly, it looks like the U.S. is running out of steam - nowhere is this better reflected than in the candidates it’s putting forward to represent the free world. 

A similar situation played out in the UK earlier this year, with uninspiring leadership and voting driven by a deserved anti-Tory sentiment, somewhat mirroring the anti-Trump rhetoric in the U.S. Again, something that could be justified, but increasingly seems to be part of a more sinister movement, led at a higher, calculated level, with potentially fatal consequences - remember the near miss in Butler, Pennsylvania?

It really is crunch time, in the leaves underfoot and in society.
https://the-new-sovereign.ghost.io/autumn-is-coming/