People are more excited about taking risk in the stock market than they were in late 2021, just before the S&P 500 Index lost 25% of its value and the Nasdaq fell 36%. They're more excited about the riskiest bonds in the market than they've been since 2003, even though a greater percentage of the companies issuing them are losing money than any time since the mid-1990s (except for early 2021). At the same time, gold is hitting new highs and Bitcoin is close to it's all time high. What they're all so excited about? It's not that hard to figure out.
Central banks around the world are cutting rates. Last month, they did it 21 different times, the highest number since March 2020 – when pandemic lockdowns shut down the entire global economy. So everyone figures that they should just buy everything and anything. It's risky though because through the history of rate-cutting cycles, its often that this is accompanied by recessions and bear markets. They think they're buying a "sure thing," but they're really getting high on speculation and risk-taking. They think risk assets are safer, but they're not. They're riskier than ever. I am holding more cash and Bitcoin than usual in risky times like this. This sets me up for a wide range of outcomes.