PBOC May Lower 1Y MLF by 20 to 30bps in 2024: Standard Chartered Says
==========

Standard Chartered Bank's head of China macro strategy, Becky Liu, predicts that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may lower the 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate by 20 to 30 basis points in 2024. Liu expects China's monetary policy to continue easing as the country undergoes an economic transition, with inflation staying low and the authorities showing conviction in pushing for continued economic reforms. The PBOC has been cutting rates over the past two years, and Liu believes that 2024 will provide a better environment for further rate cuts. She also mentions that credit growth might be slightly lower in the first quarter, followed by stronger growth in the second and third quarters. Liu forecasts that Chinese ten-year yields will go lower, and she expects a material change in SGB supply, with the official budget deficit estimated to be around 3% of GDP. Additionally, she notes that the PBOC's communication has improved, and the reinstatement of the credit unit helps rebuild confidence in the market.

#Pboc #StandardChartered #China #MonetaryPolicy #MlfRate #Inflation #CreditGrowth #ChineseTen-yearYields #SgbSupply

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-02-02/pboc-may-lower-1y-mlf-by-20-to-30bps-in-2024-stanchart-video