The CME 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices are currently predicting a 56% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the Sept 18 FOMC meeting vs a 44% chance of a 50 bps rate cut.
In my mind, it's a coin flip (50/50).
Regardless, I don't think we are going to see a massive and prolonged series of rate decreases... primarily because we are not heading into a major #recession, as many doom and gloomers suggest.
This is ongoing #normalization after the unprecedented events of 2020-22, not a typical (or major) #recession.
Invest accordingly.
Cheers.
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Do you think we get 1.5 to 2% over the next two years?
Fed funds rate? Or CPI?
Sorry, should have been clear. On FED funds rate
Yeah, I would take the over on cpi
Unlikely in 2024-25. It could possibly go sub-2% in 2026-27, but I think that the days of very low interest rates (like we had in the 2010s and early 2020s) are officially over.
That's what I'm thinking as well. I think we drop into the mid 3s late 2025 but I don't know what happens from there.
Wouldn't be surprised if we get other forms of government money meddling
Interesting 🤔 A lot of people calling for a 2008 style crash in 2025/26 with the catalyst possibly being the collapse of the commercial real-estate market. Your leaning towards this not materializing??
Possibly in 2026 or late-2025.
Unlikely before then.
What’s your opinion on Buffet thinking shit will hit the fan?
CD 12 and 18 dropped 5 to 4.5% this morning.
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