You can't assume someone's pronoun based on their appearance if a person just made it up in their head, but also you should totally assume someone's pronoun based on their appearance if it's a man in badly done makeup. One of their recurrent stories is how people still call them a guy/sir when they wear their woman costume. I mean, makeup, spinny skirt, isn't it obvious that I'm a woman? That is to say, it's not about logic, there's no way to behave that will allow you to be right in every situation. Frankly it's just an abusive dynamic where you can never win and the contradictory rules only exist for the abuser to always have an excuse to punish you.