YES 

 what does alpha mean in this context? 

 Nobody knows 

 https://image.nostr.build/17b4b5cf70425c77af0ec548d925815c263fc6c82ecae03a4c01e6dbe9364a81.jpg 

 Alpha, like, alpha your money gone  

 Hasn’t happened thus far.. to me at least. 

 Probably 

 Not dumb. I think a lot of people will be shocked in 2025. 

 S2F is not a good model to follow. The clusters are not scale invariant. https://image.nostr.build/afb4ee9076986796e5b229431255bd4a9b15535bb822e85e23b22a08985ef0bb.png  

 100k end of year? 

 It’s possible. 

 Imagine if every doctor in America suddenly stopped offering vaccines

That’s the level of about-face Wall Street did on Bitcoin between the last cycle and now

I can’t help but think this is not priced in 

 Could be sooner than expected with RFK jnr in charge of the Make America Healthy Again.

I also like that RFK and a lot of the Trump team are pro psychedelics and cannabis 

 That’s wild 😜 AF … 
https://nostrcheck.me/media/2aadfb8ac7d43aca6d164ed99248147910048269601ff60d4463c4d5b3abfdcd/2125f1b5bab7811e7e4b7083c133e499373846e428503fa76e0b515cae9189f5.webp 

 https://media.tenor.com/jnDUDCkr8BkAAAAC/say-it-aint-so-weezer.gif 

 As an omega … no idea 🤷🏻‍♀️  

 Nope!

It's a good 🧠 exercise 

 All models are wrong but I think power law is interesting. 

 Power laws are everywhere in nature, shaping everything from galaxies to ecosystems. Bitcoin’s adherence to this same structure is beautiful; its halving cycles, difficulty adjustments, and network growth all mirror the resilient, self-regulating patterns we see in living systems. It’s as if Bitcoin has taken on the qualities of a living organism, growing and adapting in harmony with the fundamental laws of nature. 

 Yes 

 Nope. 2025 is poised for face-rippings. 

 https://m.primal.net/MCgI.jpg 

 It would be a hilarious outcome if it validated 😂 

 Why would anyone abandon pure grade hopium 

 I never stopped believing in it. The ftx fraud era was the reason why it broke 

 I have always found it to be a useful model.
Human error and malfeasant behaviour cannot be modelled.

People like to dunk on it because they don't like the Y factor.

Being time. 

 This is the way: #Bitcoin, #Lightning, #Fedimint. 

 If there is any pattern in this than the next peak will likely be lower, since the last green low was also lower "than expected", but stil a formidable price 🤑 

 Yep I'm with you on the dude! 

 We're allowed to hit around $890,050 this epoch but not a fiat penny more

Sad very depressing no cent:sat parity this epoch 

 That model was abandonded for a reason.  Even Plan B says it is off. All these models are off. They can give a generalization of price but the only true thing is Price itself. Not sure if you're familiar with Jim Rome, but he has a saying related to sports games, whether it's baseball, basketball, or football, SCOREBOARD. Well with bitcoin the Price is the scoreboard. Not sure it that makes sense or not but my point is that ultimately Price will do what it will do and I have basically abandoned all models and look at Price only. Anyway, cheers. 

 this note is how everyone readopts it 😂 

 like clockwork.  

 No, it's the other way around - being dumb is what makes you think this. 

 I’m thinking we are either underwhelmed ($125k) or overwhelmed ($500k+) 
Just my two sats 

 all the models will be flamed out 

 I always thought stock to flow and power law, and whatever rational root’s spiral graph thing is, are all useful tools, but none should be taken as the gospel. It’s funny to me so much tribalism emerged to attack or defend each one. I just thought they all had some value but weren’t perfect 🤷🏻‍♂️