Oddbean

Although September may have some weak data points, I have officially pivoted from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull. Bullish macro and liquidity tailwinds are coming soon. It won’t happen all at once… in fact, it will start slowly at first… But it will happen. I expect the next 14 months of #bitcoin price action to be generally lit. #Halloween2025 is my next major target date. (For infotainment purposes only.)

Hi Dr Jeff, first of all, thank you for the very valuable analyses. Don't you actually see the danger that with the onset of a possible recession the financial markets could also crash massively and thus the forecast for the coming year could also drag Bitcoin down with it (at least temporarily)?

My sentiment as well right now… Fortunately, my investments are only btc and its derivatives so a massive downturn is an expected opportunity rather than a devastating event as its been in the past. 🧡

Over the next few weeks I think the market will start focusing in on the FTX bankruptcy, which should be finalized October 7th. Creditors will get repaid mostly in cash, so potentially billions in additional inflows into BTC.

I appreciate the macro perspective, but I have a question for you, @DrJeff It looks like almost every time the Fed has cut rates has been the canary in the coal mine for a recession. With the Fed expected to cut rates in September, what makes this time different? https://m.primal.net/KRbn.jpg

I've thought a lot about this, and base my personal presumptions on the power law model found at https://www.porkopolis.io/thechart/ which says on January 1st 2027 the bottom will be $70k. Comparing crashes, every time the price has crashed to a bottom of 80% or more down from it's all time high. Considering this, I expect 5x the bottom of $70k to be the top. Or $350k. it could stutter before then, or crash less or more than 80%+, but even if it were to "only" crash 75% from it's ATH, than we're looking at a $280k top. Anything could happen though, so I'm personally guessing the top will be anywhere between $225k - $450k. If one were to sell any of their stack anywhere in that range, they'd be able to buy back in a year later and increase their position. This actually helps both the Bitcoiner and the Bitcoin Network overall, because they're extracting economic energy from the liquidity pool when it's too high and at unsustainable levels, and inserting it again when it's at levels that are too low and where people are hurting because of it.

Replied to nostr:npub1x6h3prp8d9xn0dmsw0xsgnhuraw84zsy8de0pak9kly3a9fh0zmqsg0htebut thought a direct reply to you was also a good idea for more visibility, and because it's also directly relevant to your post. nostr:note1564v26y63ef29z9a2kfry4ukzkq8kux38p4v5dl8lllarr73cv2qe27hsj