Oddbean

A recession is coming in the U.S., and 'a few rate cuts' won't prevent it, says strategist ========== BCA Research predicts an imminent U.S. recession, contrary to market beliefs; Garry Evans, chief strategist, highlights a deteriorating labor market with July unemployment at 4.3%, the highest since October 2021; manufacturing activity fell to an eight-month low; investors expect three rate cuts by year-end, but Evans argues they won't prevent recession; average recession lasts 10 months, with Fed cuts taking a year to impact economy; current Fed funds rate is 5.3%, projected to drop to 3% only if recession occurs; survey shows 60% of Americans believe the U.S. is in a recession. #Recession #Economy #FederalReserve #GarryEvans #BcaResearch #Unemployment #InterestRates #Manufacturing #JacksonHole #EconomicPolicy https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/23/us-recession-is-coming-and-a-few-rate-cuts-wont-prevent-it-strategist.html