Oddbean new post about | logout
 I think it is more likely that their plans will fail due to simply being overwhelmed. The tide is shifting away from them. They will continue to have more battles arise than they can handle, while many of the battles they are already in slowly start turning into losses. 

When they were at the peak of their power, they not only had the resources, but also were so dominant that they had few battles. No one stepped out of line because it was clear they would lose. That certainty is falling apart.

Now their resources are being strained, their authority is being questioned, they have massive public criticism and distrust, and people are becoming emboldened to challenge them.

We will win simply by the sheer number and size of the people standing up against them. We don’t need them to be incompetent, we just need to stand beside El Salvador and bring more countries, people, and communities to our mission. Like it always has been.

We will overwhelm them at every layer, at every scale, and from every direction. And all the while we will build to make all of this stronger and more accessible than ever. 
 Well said.