Oddbean

Betting markets like this are out of sync, and the race is much closer than this. I believe this was that case when this was flipped a few months ago and would be the case today if the roles were reversed. Many of my red hats seem taken by confirmation bias here. These betting markets are marked by newness, low liquidity, and fiat VC hyped backing and marketing budget. It is not inconceivable that various cost agnostic actors - ie political agendaed VCs, foreign actors etc, have their fingers on the scales to have these channels present a particular narrative - you can’t say it’s not working because here we are talking about it… Kalshi has 100M total in the pool for this one, they are plenty of actors where 10-20M to juice the odds in the name of narrative capture is a worthwhile gamble. If they win, their guy wins and they get paid. If they loose, who cares, fiat is free to them… That said I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the spread tightens significantly in the final stretch as some of these player may be hedging on the other side to limit their losses. Lots of voting happening early so snapping this gap closed in the final day or two is low risk as the desired impact has already been made. I think this race will be close. I think the stalwarts in both camps are manic and have completely disassociated from the reality of how close this race will be because it is psychologically comforting and/or ego boosting for them.