Oddbean

Peace in this situation is equivalent to the defund the police insanity. Russia has stolen a bunch of stuff and murdered a lot of innocent people. To actually stop this behavior you need to change the incentives, and remove their ability to do so in the future. A quick "peace" through a ceasefire does not do that. Territories have to be taken back, and Russians have to be captured and killed, for the incentives to change. This is no different to how letting off shoplifters with warnings just results in more shoplifting in the future.

I see the analogy but I think it's a bit more complex when people are actually dying right now and there is no clear path, or even any path, to a Ukrainian victory (defined as return of territories). Should the shopowner keep fighting the shoplifter or let hin go and focus on improving his security for next time? And yes, I understand that you'll say the shoplifter will be encouraged to return, so it won't increase future security, but it might still be the best bet. I haven't personally concluded on this but I'm more pragmatic than you'd probably appreciate. I still appreciate you though 🧡

There is a very clear path to Ukrainian victory: provide Russia with the weapons it needs (and for that matter, promised) and use them against Russia. Biden's administration has actually delivered just 10% of what congress approved – Biden has been intentionally holding Ukraine back to try to force some kind of ceasefire. Those billions of dollars of weapons promised hasn't actually been shipped to me Ukraine. It's endless delays and excuses, even though the US has large stockpiles of this stuff. Yet even with 10% of what they were supposed to have, and never being allowed to use all kinds of long range weapons that would obviously make a huge improvement, Ukraine has not only successfully held Russia back. They've even taken Russian territory. This isn't hard. Russia is a weak country with a terrible economic situation and failing military. They'd have lost already if politicians actually tried to win it.

Peter Todd is a psychopath war monger. Doesn’t matter if he is a Bitcoin “og” Advocating for war in any sense makes you a statist. He says “Russians must be killed” Which Russians? Who will execute them? These are individuals. If one feels that a war of self defense is necessary- they would fight themselves to protect their property- else they are nothing but a coward and a warmonger. Asking others to kill and die for his ideas.