Oddbean

🎁Israel’s ‘Gift’ to Trump? A Desperate Ceasefire Wrapped in Failure A ‘ceasefire gift’ to #Trump? No, it’s a desperate scramble by #Israel after a series of failures. Their ground invasion of #Lebanon—like the debacle in #Gaza—has laid bare their military limits. Israeli soldiers, unable to hold any Lebanese village, retreat after hours just to take selfies photos and propaganda videos, wiring homes with explosives and resorting to distant bombardment to avoid devastating close combat losses. Meanwhile, the Lebanese resistance has grown stronger, with missiles, rockets, and capable untraceable drones striking daily. The 70,000 Israeli troops stationed at the border are tired and feeling useless. Israeli soldiers themselves have published videos showing resistance forces launching ballistic missiles from just feet away—a reality that dismantles Israel’s claims of having ‘invaded’ southern Lebanon and neutralized its opposition. The #military Israeli toll is undeniable: over 100+ soldiers killed, 1,000+ wounded, 43 Merkava tanks destroyed, 8 bulldozers eliminated, 2 Hummers lost, and 6 advanced drones (4 Hermes 450 and 2 Hermes 900) shot down. In a desperate attempt to control the narrative, Israel has imposed strict media #censorship, banning border coverage to hide their failures. But this war has not only exposed #military limitations—it’s become economically unsustainable. Israel’s total war-related costs are projected at $55.6-67.3 billion through 2025, or roughly 10-12% of its #GDP, with potential lost economic activity estimated at $400 billion over the next decade. The economy contracted by 20% in the final quarter of 2023, with annual growth plunging to 2% from a pre-war high of 6.5%, and forecasts for 2024 revised to just 1.5%. Trade and commerce have collapsed, with exports dropping by 18.3% and imports by 42%. Private consumption has fallen by 26.9%, and business investment has collapsed by 67.8%. The labor market is strained, with 300,000 reservists mobilized, the loss of 160,000 Palestinian workers, and an expected closure of 60,000 Israeli businesses due to labor shortages. Israeli Government spending surged by 88.1% to cover war expenses, driving the budget deficit to a projected 6.6-7.5% for 2024. Defense leaders have requested an additional $5.39 billion annually. In response, Fitch downgraded Israel’s credit rating from A+ to A with a negative outlook, echoed by Moody’s and S&P. Yet Israel, along with its #AIPAC sponsored patron, the U.S., can simply print their way out of such economic losses by creating money out of thin air—a privilege that sustains wars and aggression far beyond their natural limits. This is precisely why resistance and #Bitcoin represent the only two true checks on such imperial overreach. The resistance imposes direct costs through military and strategic means, while Bitcoin stands as an incorruptible alternative to fiat-based inflation, making unchecked money creation more costly and ultimately less sustainable. Aggression only stops when the cost of continuing exceeds the cost of ending it—and resistance ensures that day comes sooner. For a state built on projecting strength to attract citizenships, the reality is clear: Israel’s military failures and economic collapse expose a state weakened by its own ambitions. The resistance has proven to be the only barrier to Israel’s expansionist historical dreams—symbolized by the two blue stripes on its flag, representing expansion from the Nile to the Euphrates. Israel’s attempt to promote settlement narratives in #Lebanon and teach its children that South Lebanon is ‘rightfully theirs’ through a new children’s book reveals the depth of this ambition. Without resistance, #Netanyahu would continue provoking #Tehran, baiting a retaliation against Tel Aviv, to justify attacks on #Iran’s nuclear facilities and drag the U.S. into another war even at a global economic cost—all in pursuit of the ‘Greater Israel’ agenda. So, Israel’s ‘gift’ to Trump? A crumbling ceasefire plan—offered not from strength, but because it can no longer afford the cost of its imperial ambitions. #Geopolitics #Nostr #Introductions nostr:note1fnjvz2xm5lgxez3xx4aprm50s43lln4vz6gdme56way4z0v2frqqsdwkdn https://m.primal.net/MCZu.jpg