Oddbean new post about | logout
 The real Lehman Bros is Japan 
 Let ye ole global Swap Lines.exe commence 
 What did I miss? x) 
 The Lehman Samurais 
 “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face” 💴 🔥 
 Japames sovereign debt is ~$7.85Tn.
Japan's gdp is ~$4.2Tn
Japan's tax receipts are ~$0.5Tn
Interst expense $.076Tn, given extreme yield curve control

So the currency just gets weaker weaker, and Japan gets poorer and poorer. 
 The global monetary ledger is an SQL database at the Federal Reserve. Every other fiat currency is just an L2 on the dollar network. The L2's will collapse or survive based on the Fed's decisions. 

The real change happens when the L1 goes too far in their bailouts, and people abandon ship to a new and better L1. Like any other sinking ship, the people who panic first panic best. 

If you aren't panicking yet, today is a great day to start.