Oddbean new post about | logout
 All fun and games until someone presses the big red button. Then our show of force will be meaningless  
 The only nuclear power that I can see possibly becoming suicidal is a Russia that manages to stay unified behind Putin after a decisive loss in Ukraine. I see that as impossible though - if Ukraine is a decisive loss, Putin loses his head and Russia is under a new government. If (more likely) Ukraine ends in a ceasefire with frontlines relatively frozen at where they are now, Russia will call it a “win” and then gradually try to get on peaceful terms with everyone again and have sanctions lifted. Aggressive Russia will be nowhere to be found for a decade at least.