The reasoning is simple:
Bitcoin is a much better election hedge than betting markets (more liquidity, more volume). Other markets will be closed. FX open but no clear signal for EURUSD from candidate policy.
Clear differential T/K policy implications for Bitcoin.
So best choice for large professional speculators is to incorporate new info to Bitcoin price as fast as their quants can get it.
Good early stats are available in swing states many hours before polls close in western states. Quants can make very good estimates from that. As hours pass % of certainty will increase. Old media will still be playing circus, but traders will have made their bets. Bitcoin price will reflect it.
If I managed a HF with billions at stake I would absolutely spend a few thousand on exit polls in early swing states. I would then have the best statisticians infer as much as possible from that sample.
You can probably do Pennsylvania with a sample of ~1000 voters. Similar for North Carolina.
https://m.primal.net/LtbK.png
A team of 10 surveyors can get you that sample in a few hours for 20$/hr. The cost of having a good early estimate is ridiculously low. Why wouldn't you do it?
And if you have the info... why not use it?
And if you are going to use it... Bitcoin is the best way to bet on the results.
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