Oddbean new post about | logout
 I think Saylor is done and the 3 billion from notes was not enough to break 1 billion

mara raised a billion and I don't know if they bought already

the ETFs bought 30k + BTC last week but we're heading into a holiday week and my guess is that number is lower this week

nostr:note1jnhthlhsz9m3ryqdcerzwdnmxr33ftt6glt5vm5la8zyz5mnk2eqde5tzv 
 To break 100 thou# 
 I saw that 10 billion was sold in the high 97-99 range. So bulls bought most of it back up, and barely moved. This is a good sign IMO. 
 It took him 18 days to deploy $6B, my guess is it will take a week to deploy $3B and that we see 100k+ corn this coming week 
 would love that, saw some analysis that pointed to the 27th being the likely day

my takeaway is corporates, ETFs, and bond powered buying may erase the big dips we used to get 
 Been into this shit since before my beloved doggie coin existed and that sounds about right to me 
 I'd be richer if I always got it right tho 
hh | 7 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1
 There is no retail. Definitely not US-based retail at least, so even less European and Chinese. If US retail ever comes back, it will be in a few years, IF Trump floods the economy again, AND they manage to clear the current ONE TRILLION dollar credit card debt, AND wages grow more than debt and prices... OR we have another "flu" and everybody gets stimmy checks, times 5.

And even like that, at the current $3 B market cap (for all crypto) that wouldn't make much of a difference anymore. The age of retail is past. 
hh | 7 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1
 $ 3 Trillion, not B. 
 meaning still got through 🫂 
 I held this viewpoint until last week but now I'm questioning it because of a couple things ... I think early retail is here

-Google search trends for Bitcoin last week looked like big bull markets
-crypto exploded up and it had been tame 

maybe less meaningful this time around with a 3 trillion market cap but maybe not ... reflexivity may amplify retail  
hh | 7 days ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +2
 I get what you're saying, but even all that trash meme coin frenzy on Solana is VC money, not retail. Google searches and other "social indicators" don't change the fact that people are broke AF. The only way I see "retail" coming back is boomers through ETFs. 
 I hear ya and I think a big portion of the US is broke and there's a big portion that is doing better than ever. I've had more people ask about bitcoin this week than over the past year. So the wealthy part of retail is here. 

I don't know, it's all speculation but I'm having fun watching it