> in the context of a cryptocurrency a "transaction tracing tool" would be able to identify the source, destination and amount of transactions
I don't think it has to automatically do that. A tracing tool is good if it helps automate some parts of the tracing task even if other parts remain manual.
> random chance identifies the sender in "about 1 of 15 cases"
But random guessing uses no data. This tool uses *data* to identify the sender. A random guess would not be grounds for doing anything. A statistical analysis is worth a lot more.
> the recipient that is published on-chain is a one time stealth address. not useful for tracing since SAs break the transaction graph.
They do not break the transaction graph. Stealth addresses do not appear just once, they appear again whenever the recipient spends his money and possibly in other transactions as decoys. Filtering out the decoys leaves you with only the true spend tx. You can do that *because* there is a tx graph that stealth addresses appear multiple times in.
> and amounts remain opaque
Except part of the amount is visible (the fee) and gives you info about the amount in the outputs as well as in the inputs
> additionally, if it takes "a considerable amount of off-chain information" to *actually use* NOBODY is tracing monero transactions
Seems like you contradict yourself here. First you say "nobody" and argue that the data doesn't exist, then you admit some people might do it and governments might have that data.
Not a good look.
sorry
forgot you lack the ability to process nuance.
but if you don't understand that the off-chain data your "tracing tool" relies on
may be attainable by the NSA when investigating certain individuals,
but be nonexistent in the VAST number of cases,
I can't really help.