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 I would bet it’s more like 98% that don’t become much of anything. 
 Yes, about right.  Nostr was in fact one of those destined for the scrap heap.  Even its creator had moved on to other things.  You have no idea the work and team effort it took to get it to where it was noticed by jack.  After that it was relatively easy.  But still to level up nostr is at this point going to take enormous work, and luck.   
 I think betting on dat or hyper-stack and the pear runtime is a save bet.
keet is state of the art and proves what is possible, which other stacks lack.
The stack behind the pear runtime has also been worked towards since 2013 and survived a lot of tough times.

Other projects are at the mercy of funders and if those leave ornchange their minds, people move on and things die quickly.

That is different from the pear runtime which despite lack of funding for long periods of time, survived and is striving, because people give it a lot of love and effort and this is rare to find imho.

It outlived many projects over the past 10+ years, projects with more hype and more funding. ...it might outlive nostr as well 🙂

And also because Keet can do a lot of things nostr cand and was never designed to do.