Oddbean

This Forecasting Tool Is Sending Its Strongest Warning Since the Great Recession. It Could Signal a Big Move in the Stock Market. ========== The U.S. economy expanded 2.5% in 2023, an acceleration from 1.9% in 2022. However, consumer spending and business investments slowed in the first quarter of 2024, with U.S. economic growth slowing to 1.6%. The Treasury yield curve has been inverted since late 2022, which has preceded every recession since 1969. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has fallen 13.1% from its record high in December 2021, the sharpest decline since the Great Recession. The LEI has been a reliable forecasting tool, with a decline of at least 5% from its peak preceding a recession within 21 months. The S&P 500 has declined by an average of 31% during recessions but has rebounded by an average of 40% in the 12 months following the trough. Investors should be cautious in the current economic environment but not exit the stock market. #StockMarket #Recession #EconomicGrowth #TreasuryYieldCurve #ConferenceBoardLeadingEconomicIndex #S&p500 https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/10/strong-warning-since-great-recession-stock-market/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host-full&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article