Oddbean new post about | logout
 China is buying #Gold and simultaneously dumping U.S. treasuries like never before

The dollar as a reserve currency ended when it was used as a weapon against Russia. https://image.nostr.build/54365e89b2f6cee554a868056afb2ecc063ccc3d8d11edb5cf0e9d5beb679d3d.jpg  
 I‘d say the trend started much earlier (China is preparing for something? 🤔). But true, Feb 2022 accelerated it considerably. 
 They invade Taiwan once Treasury holdings go to zero. 
 Actually, it probably works the other way  (too?)... 'Murica touches their pinky toe on Taiwan and 700 billion in treasuries is dumped on the market 
 Also, Luke gromen's distinction between treasuries and dollars seems useful (each can weaken on different time frames) 
 The U.S. might let them take Taiwan, as well. If they can find a solid alternative for TSM, they might order a full on retreat. Seems unlikely, but... there are a lot of ways this can go down. 🤔😔 
 Indeed, tsmc is a crown jewel 
 They are making the same mistake they made when they tried to go on the silver standard. 
 A deeper dive into that Bloomberg data was done by Brad Setser May 20th. Worth looking for (X unfortunately) to get some additional insight and nuance on what might be happening. 
 Looks like they're enjoying themselves! 
 Don’t underestimate all the debt that has to be repaid in dollars 
 Don’t be naive