Oddbean new post about login | logout Have a listen to some of @_Checkmatey_ recent interviews
I think it is an important question as to WHO are the long term hodlers who are selling. Perhaps some of the buyers in 2013(ish) who are now selling were not interested in price appreciation. Perhaps they were accumulating a reserve to try to manage future volatility. Say whatever you want, I absolutely don’t believe that long-term, authentic bitcoin hodlers are selling here because it goes against the obvious halving market cycle timing. I believe anyone selling in bulk here is trying to suppress price.
I know for a fact that a fair amount of people from the 2016 days are selling coins. Most of them are psuedo shitcoiners or just don't really believe in Bitcoin.
I just don’t believe that the retail / OG sell-side pressure is enough to offset MicroStrategy, ETF, halving-reduction impact. Bitcoin absorbed 50k Bitcoin incremental sell side pressure from Germany over two weeks. There is no way this is a steady state supply / demand balance in the spot markets. No one will be able to convince me otherwise without specific, data driven insights.
https://youtu.be/fPV7WHCBCaI?si=BhIuVsgN_2t3i_GQ
🤖 Tracking strings detected and removed! 🔗 Clean URL(s): https://youtu.be/fPV7WHCBCaI ❌ Removed parts: ?si=BhIuVsgN_2t3i_GQ
I listened to this. Leaves more questions then answers given.
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.” The political world understands it needs to get their arms around this industry before the next hyperbolic move upward excites the public and makes it harder for them to act. The powerful of the fiat world now understand (enough) and are working diligently to “regulate” the bitcoin market and/or integrate bitcoin into the legacy financial systems. Can their actions suppress the price for months? Can they blunt the halving impacts indefinitely? If they can’t suppress price indefinitely, what disruptions will be caused by the eventual price rip?