Oddbean new post about | logout
 Should this be the metric to track?
BTC x Exchange Rate ($)
/
Total Shares ???
———————————
Run the #s …..
331,200($93.4k)
/
202,640,000
———————————
As of 18:45 UTC this equals:
$153/share

MSTR price is $481/share

So if someone offered you 198 shares of MSTR or one BTC right now, that would be approximately the same current value. 

What about the future value of 1 BTC versus 198 MSTR? MSTR is likely to be diluted by an unknown amount over an unknown time period versus EXACT coin emission dilution.

I would take the BTC, right?

Shouldn’t MSTR holders be selling and buying coin until the above is $153/share?

I’m confused. 
 Well, no, that's not the right metric exactly.

For example, Apple's asset value/share is less than 5% the price/share.  Nobody chooses to buy Apple stock based on this metric.  The value proposition of buying Apple stock is that Apple will keep building and selling new crap to improve on the share price.  There is no right metric to predict this.

Similarly, the value proposition of MSTR isn't its current asset value; it's the expectation that the share price will increase.  The difference, of course, is that what drives MSTR price isn't based on what they will be building and selling.  Instead, it's almost entirely based on the expectation that future investors will fund the increase of BTC/share of previous investors.

All that said, I would suggest sticking to buying coin.  There's no telling when the stream of future investors willing to fund the increase of BTC/shares of previous investors might end; but, a severe bear market would almost certainly trigger it. 
 You value different companies different ways. I think MSTR is justified some premium, because they have leveraged Bitcoin, not just Bitcoin. But maybe not this much premium. 

If undervalued, do buybacks. 
If it's over valued, they should issue shares and dilute it. Not leverage harder! It's completely unsustainable, and I don't trust them to reign it back if Bitcoin keeps pumping. 

So I think they will be in dire straits come a bear market. Not that their current position is that bad.  
 💯 there is no real long term *product* from MSTR 🤝 
 Also one is captured in a security - massively taxed……If BTC becomes legal tender then no cap gains.

HODL til legal tender 
 Yes. Then spend on Bentleys and Cocaine.  
 I thought it was Lambos and Girlfriends 😂