Oddbean new post about login | logout Even if you consider LLMs a break through .. they are puny compared to fixing global monetary system .. There are 8 billion walking LLMs .. every human essentially carries a LLM in a tiny part of brain .. why do we need more of them .. particularly if they consume gitawatts more. A human brain runs on 100 watts .. a 💡 And the idea that LLMs know all the information on internet is stupendously wrong .. the web scrapes help them only understand what word to use next to frame a grammatically coherent answer .. there is no wisdom whatsoever ..
They are a productivity multiplier. Asking why we need them is like asking why we need steam power when we already have all these horses. Wisdom? The LLMs I use have more wisdom than most of the humans I know. As far as fixing the global monetary system, we'll see. I have high hopes for Bitcoin but it hasn't done it yet.
if we were horses , we sure won't like steam engines :-) jokes apart - productivity enhancers - that is a huge dimming down of narrative .. earlier promises were bigger than going to Mars 😉 .. and if they are only "productivity enhancers " .. how do we justify 316,000 % increase in stock price !
I would guess the horses were thrilled to get unhitched from the plow. As far as the narrative, yes I agree many people think that what is a breakthrough is going to immediately lead to super intelligence and AGI, which to me is like getting steam power and saying "Ok only a little time until we have cold fusion". That's not how it works. The increase in stock price is obviously a giant monetary premium from people trying to find somewhere to park their money that protects it from debasement. That said, the national defense implications of those chips is substantial. It is overpriced? Well based on earnings you would have to think yes, it is. I certainly don't own it. But I understand why so many people do.
also important to note that while a human brain requires 100 watts, it takes 20 years to make a 20 year old human and the amount of energy that goes into it in food, water, shelter, education, and all the rest is substantial. Then once you have one it costs a LOT more than the electric bill on 100 watts to employ them to use their puny human brain.