That’s trading and is not going to work like you think. You have an entry point on the 16-17k range and you are going to ruin it, and end up with less bitcoin than if you just bought today, because you are certain it’s going to fall again.
A *very* likely scenario:
It’ll either not fall, or it’ll fall after a much higher run, you’ll sell here around 43k, it’ll run all the way to 55k, you’ll buy back in panic, then it dumps all the way back to 38k, you sell there thinking it’ll follow your original plan, then it’s flat, and rockets back up on some random announcement. It’s back at 52k, you buy back in under panic.
You *had* a bitcoin cost basis of 16k, now you have a cost basis of more than twice that for no reason other than you decided to risk your bitcoin to get more, instead of just dumping your fiat to get more.
And if it DOES actually go back to mid 20k, you can just add to your stack at a great price and never have to stress or worry about whether it does what you think. It’s just a happy opportunity.
In the trading scenario you’re going to be staring at charts. It’s going to consume your thoughts while it goes against you. It’ll distract you from more important family and life that needs to be dealt with. And if it goes wrong you’ll feel miserable for weeks or months and always look back thinking “I had twice this amount once.”
Maybe you’re a super experienced trader and you know all the “tricks” and know how to keep your emotions in check. Good for you if so. But practically everyone that puts their hand in that fire gets burned.
Oh yeah… and you’ll have to record it all and pay chunks of it in taxes to state and federal… so take out another 10-20% on top.
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The only “trades” that I think should even be considered, are on a 2-4 year time frame and they should be done thoughtfully with a very small portion at the edge of your stack. Huge seasonal and debt cycle swings that can be maintained are lower risk, BUT even those force a higher cost to stay in balance during the worst part of the bear market. It often still won’t go the way you think…
TL;DR:
No, I think that’s generally a foolish decision. I think you should keep every day you bought at 16-17k, and if you get lucky and it goes back to mid 20k, you put fiat as much aside during the interim to stack there too.
Spoken like a #Bitcoin vet. Experience is the best teacher 🙏
My time horizon operates in months and years rather than days or weeks, so I don’t panic or FOMO.
But it seems your view is that in lieu of a global soft landing, the dollar will get destroyed and in extreme circumstances, BTC will be regarded as a store of value rather than a risk asset. I suppose that’s where we disagree.
Like it or not, the general public does not view bitcoin in that context yet and I also tend to agree with Brent Johnson‘s milkshake theory. So my view is that given many hodlers will need that liquidity in an economic downturn, taking profits when you have the chance would be more responsible than being forced to sell low and get washed out of the market.
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