Oddbean new post about login | logout If I'm going to close the channel anyway why wouldn't I use whichever state is the most favorable for me? Sure with watchtowers the probability of success is low but I don't see any downside trying. If failure meant losing $5 worth of btc it'd be at least some reason not to.
Note that I do think that losing whole channel on backup failure is excessive punishment. No punishment is also a problem.
It's always cheaper to mutual close so it's only when you're going to close unilaterally. And at least this peer is very unlikely to open a channel with you again if you're a pratt. It's hard to quantify reputational damage though, to be fair.
Ostracizing may be harsher punishment than taking sats though.