Oddbean

i always find it interesting when he talks about the origins of Amazon because one of his mantras for founders is ‘don’t chase the hot thing’ but that’s what it sounds like he’s doing here.

Amazon is also deeply fiat and only won because of fiat. Their initial growth was funded by never ending cheap debt. They always just skirted the line of maximizing the debt they held while still bring able to make the payments. Only cheap debt makes it possible to grow that fast. The speedy growth is how you crush all of your competition who wasn't enough of a degenerate gambler to take on reckless levels of debt to fund rapid growth at all costs. Fiat funds and reinforces the first mover advantage.

Amazon went 20 years without turning a profit because it played the long game and knew what it was building. Meanwhile we have bitcoin companies turning tail and running after a year in business. Maybe just maybe bitcoiners ought to take some lessons on what it takes to be profitable instead of blanketly labeling everything “fiat” to get a few likes on social media.

I didn't say I don't admire the dedication to stick with the plan as long as they did or the balls it took to take on that debt knowing that 1 poorly timed expensive issue could destroy all their work. None of that changes that amazon grew the way they did because they played the fiat debt growth game perfectly. This helped them beat competition who weren't as good at that game as they were. All of Musks companies, netflix, uber and a few others are also king even though they weren't the best in the market because they were better at the fiat debt growth game. This is a separate game to the basic good product, good price, good customer service model of business from middle school economics. Modern fiat businesses must do both to be king. Most bitcoin companies are on a bitcoin standard and don't have access to those insane levels of leverage and cheap debt. They will need to run the company differently. We will need to support those companies differently as consumers. Devs from the silicon valley VC world who don't see this important distinction and adjust will get wrecked.

Bitcoin companies have it tough. Embrace Open Source and “PoW” (not move fast and break things) they get pleb street cred, but turn away VC and Private Equity. Go the other way and they get shitcoined labeled. Tough out there.

Amazon operated at a massive! loss for the first decade of its existence. They also undermined the competition by unfairly not having to charge tax for over a decade. Once they were big, states would offer incentives like no tax if they built their warehouse or data centers in their state, undermining local business. Amazon's success is a product of the printing press and weaponizing government against the competition.

I feel the same way about npubs, events, zaps and relays. Entirely new approach, but not sure what the killer use case will be. Bezos understood the tech and had the faith to apply it to a business model with an entirely new possibility. It took 20 years to be profitable, but he did it. Likely similar pattern for #nostr, hopefully not as long.