Oddbean

U.S. recession signal likely a false positive: Fitch ========== The recent rise in the U.S. unemployment rate that triggered renewed recession concerns was likely a false positive, says Fitch Ratings; The rise in the jobless rate was largely driven by workers joining and re-joining the labour force, rather than meaningful job losses; Permanent job losses are still contained, only making up less than 20% of the increase in the unemployment rate; The July triggering of the Sahm rule, which indicates that the economy is entering recession when the three-month moving average for the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points from its low over the past 12 months, likely wasn't valid; Fitch expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4% by the end of the year, as demand continues to slow in response to the lagged effect of higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions; Economic growth is expected to come in at 2.1% for 2024. #UsRecession #UnemploymentRate #JobLosses #SahmRule #FitchRatings #EconomicGrowth https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/u-s-recession-signal-likely-a-false-positive-fitch/