Oddbean

The self annointed ”TRUE BITCOINERS 😇” who are lecturing the others not so true bitcoiners about how stupid Trump is and how he doesn’t understand #bitcoin the way #RFK does.. please consider the following: 1. Bitcoin demands vast amounts of energy. 2. Trump clearly understands this and have very credible thoughts about how to get to the enormous expansion of energy generation that is needed to be successful in bitcoin and AI. 3. RFK HATE nuclear power. And he is FULLY on the #climatescam and is not positive towards expanding the ”drilling”. So he has NO credible plan for expanding the energy generation in a way that is sufficent. With that in mind: Who of the two REALLY understands #Bitcoin ? #TRUMP or RFK?

both are politicians, not interesting to bitcoiners if you got what @LynAlden just said. Bitcoin does not need miners in America, nor expansion of energy production. It's the other way around - miners find good energy opportunities around the world.

In fact, vibrant bitcoin mining is a sign of poor decisions in the fiat energy realm. Cheap/free hydro in SE Asia is because of centrally planned projects, cheap on-grid in Texas is due to renewable subsidies deployed creating supply/demand disconnects through ERCOT. Alternatively, if a country’s energy policy reduces waste and lowers red tape, then that energy will be used for more valuable applications than bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining is the energy buyer of last resort, geographically agnostics interruptible demand. The most profitable miner will consume only waste, curtailed, stranded energy…not compete with other productive demand applications.

True to some extent, but nuance will change the picture to some extent: - you can't scale the production continuously in industry. You can allow other productive use by building a power plant. Bitcoin is the buyer of first resort in this case, allowing other production that would not otherwise happen. - combined with energy futures, it's the best regulator, allowing the energy to be cheaper. Overproduce base load that will be consumed by miners, but incentivize them with futures to turn off the machines. It's cheaper than producing expensive peak load. This lowers the prices for productive use. Energy is complicated.

Energy is complicated but bitcoin mining isn’t as much. The difficulty adjustment will lead to the pursuit of energy increasingly cheap then free then eventually paid to the miners. This type of energy isn’t found in GW scale but single/double digit MWs or hundreds of kWs … and it isn’t found in any single country. Mining will decentralize in chasing this type of energy source or it will fail. Pretty simple.