Oddbean new post about | logout
 Good point. We’re still aiming at a moving target. In the next four years (the next epoch), we could see AGI emerge, which could change everything—how chains are used, how development happens, how we discuss things, and the path to ossification. Once AGI arrives, we’ll likely get used to virtual assistants that communicate on new layers, invent tech we haven’t seen yet, and do all this without needing forks.

We’ll be able to evaluate things like the mining fee auction more efficiently, figure out things like the nash equilibrium and iterative prisoners dilemma e.g. how much will a high value tx pay to get priority.  All our research and explanations will get a big helping hand. 

The app landscape for consensus and polling might shift too. We’ll be able to replicate the best parts of DeFi on Bitcoin, Nostr, Ditto (maybe Pear too), and we’ll be better at identifying and countering social attacks. The future could be pretty interesting, and we're not in a rush for a killer feature or osification I dont think immediately.  We do want to avoid catastrophic failure vectors, and guide the project carefully through the next phase.