Oddbean new post about | logout
 People often say to me that there is no way #Bitcoin would ever be used as a medium of exchange. 

I see there being a tipping point in the future, after the fiat price of BTC has appreciated massively and hodlers are sitting on huge paper gains.

At this point everyone will want to get their hands on some sats since they have seen it continue to grow and make people around them massively wealthy. 

Most Bitcoiners will not be willing to sell their Sats for dollars at this point as it will be clear that they will continue to trend towards zero against BTC.  

This will lead to desperate normies selling anything that they can in exchange for BTC. They will trade their labor, their cars, there homes ect. all at a steep discount in order to get ahold of some precious Satoshis 

As this trend continues, and the dollar becomes more and more unstable we will begin to price goods in sats and eventually it will grow into full circular economy. 

It will not be a sudden transition in my opinion, but rather a slow transition that happens on the margins. 
 yes this is likely. The mobile wave was slow. Adoption could be similar. You didn't notice the changes really but at a certain point everyone had a small computer with a phone application in it in their hands. 
 Exactly! Networks gain value with each new entrant leading to the S-curve adoption. First there are early adopters but as more people join it incentivizes even greater adoption leading to an exponential explosion in a relatively short time. 

Gradually then suddenly.