The Logic of Counterfactuals and the Epistemology of Causal Inference

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized a theory of causal inference that warrants more attention from philosophers. To this end, I design a tutorial on that theory for philosophers and develop a dialectic that connects to a traditional debate in philosophy: the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I first defend CEM, presenting a new Quine-Putnam indispensability argument based on the Nobel-winning application of the Rubin causal model (the potential outcome framework). Then, I switch sides to challenge this argument, introducing an updated version of the Rubin causal model that preserves the successful application while dispensing with CEM.

https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/24222