Agreed with the L1 considerations. As you say, anyone who have done the calculations know that a decentralized money cannot provide L1 transactions for 8 billion people. Magical thinking have zero impact on reality.

Any scaling solution that aims at giving 8 billion people access to Bitcoin must involve a free market of L2-L3 options. The Bitcoin base layer is the proper foundation for healthy free market competition, which in turn brings high degrees of security via game theory.

I would say that there are degrees of self custody. Moving sats away from exchanges, who are government controlled, is a primary aspect of self custody. For significant amounts, custody involving L1 is ideal. For smaller amounts, an archipelago of options competing via game theory is far better than anything we have had before. Unserious and captured options will lose trust and users in benefit of the serious and non-captured options. LN operators are decentralized and sovereign banks, unimpacted by borders since Bitcoin is global and without borders.