Oddbean new post about login | logout The observation that bitcoins has followed a power law for 15 years or the idea that it will continue until things are not denominated in dollars anymore?
The idea that bitcoins ascent is orderly/predictable
How much longer would it have to hold before you change your mind?
If it holds even beyond next year I’ll change my mind.
If you look at the standard deviations it’s pretty much a lock to hold next year - it’s like $50k to $500k range
The model works until it doesn’t. Just like S2F … if any major government / company decides it’s going to buck the dollar in order to cement its future relevancy, every model out there becomes irrelevant immediately.
Sure, but that goes for everything ‘humanity will exist until it doesn’t’. The uncertainty of the future is why we have models. Saying models won’t hold up because the future is uncertain doesn’t make sense and only conveys the reason why we have models in the first place.
Okay, so you’re saying the power law model gets the timing right on bitcoin’s mass adoption? Because every pricing model is trying to represent the timing of bitcoin’s price appreciation, right?
I give it the best odds
I think the macroeconomic backdrop will accelerate bitcoin’s price performance to outperform the power law model. The amount of easing required to “fix” the treasury markets globally is going to be silly.