Off the wall Bitcoin hypothesis. The last cycle was muted because retail got in a lot earlier in the cycle, because of the Covid stimulus payments (in the US, similar on other countries) were free money for the laptop classes. Without Covid, the last ATH would have been higher.

So my hypothesis is: the Bitcoin price is currently battling what *would have been* the 0.786 retracement. In the last two cycles, this was broken about 700 says after the bear market capitulation.

If so, then expect a breakout around mid October. 

 Expect the breakout for fall. Not because of TA, but because interest rates will go lower