The Congressional Budget Office expects about $20 trillion in net new federal bonds to be issued over the next ten years (cumulative deficits). This assumes that 1) interest rates will be lower than now and that also 2) there will be no recessions during that time. If either of those scenario are untrue, bond issuance is likely to be higher than that.
In comparison, at current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion worth of new refined gold is expected to be mined over the next ten years. Production can go up a bit, but gold production changes are generally pretty slow within a given decade, especially with current capex. However, price could change a lot depending on how much capital wants to flow in/out.
Finally, at current prices, about $70 billion of new bitcoin will be mined over the next ten years. The production rate cannot materially change due to the difficulty adjustment, but of course price can change a lot depending on how much capital wants to flow in/out.
Anyway, my April newsletter is out and touches on this concept: https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/
Anyway... you're awesome.
I’ll take the over on $20T
Stellar work as always friend
Smells like an incredible pair/spread trade
The current $BTC market conditions are showing a higher low, which typically indicates a bearish trend.
Taking all of this, the next significant point in the market is projected to be trading on ATH, the best approach for this indicator is integrating arbitrage strategy for passive accumulation.
You can easily 100x your portfolio this period with the passive arbitrage signals.
If you’re a fan of #bitcoin and you haven't join Rebelcapitalist (RCL) yet then I don’t even know what you’re doing here!
Vip group: https://t.me/rebelcapitalistshow
Arbitrage strategy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kX7inr8yy1s
Maybe they expect that the dollar would have less value in the future. 20 trillion will not have the same value as they have now , so no big deal (in their minds😁)
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